Navigating Uncharted Waters "How do officers before in the Royal Norwegian Navy predict unforeseen events and employ innovation during problem-solving in operations?"

Abstract

Military officers must handle unforeseen events and innovate under pressure in an ever-evolving operational landscape. Recent educational reforms at the Norwegian Naval Academy aim to enhance these capabilities by revising training curricula and methodologies. This thesis investigates the impact of these reforms on officers' ability to predict and manage unforeseen events within the Royal Norwegian Navy. Employing a quantitative research design, the study surveyed officers who graduated before and after the educational reforms were implemented. Theoretical frameworks regarding unforeseen events, decision-making, and innovation were utilized to analyze responses and interpret findings. Key theories included Torgersen's definitions of unforeseen events and Boyd's OODA-loop model for decision-making. The findings reveal a significant shift in officers' perceptions and capabilities following the educational reforms. Younger officers, educated post-reform, reported enhanced innovation in problem-solving and greater adaptability to unforeseen situations. An increased perceived trust and cooperative innovation within their operational environments was also noted. These changes suggest a correlation between the updated programs and subjects at the Naval Academy. The results underscore the importance of adaptive training frameworks in military education. Enhanced decision-making skills and increased innovation align with the theoretical perspectives proposed by the study, indicating that the reforms may offer benefits in preparing officers for complex and dynamic operational environments. However, the sample size is limited, and the effects of the reform are not entirely in effect, as the intermediate leaders that facilitate the heightened level of environmental trust most likely are part of the pre-reform selection of personnel.