Multistage Model Predictive Control with Simplified Method on Scenario Ensembles of Uncertainty for Hjartdøla Hydropower System

Abstract

Despite the many advantages associated with hydropower, the optimal operation of a hydropower system can be challenging due to various operational constraints and uncertainties, such as those related to weather forecasts and power production planning. Additionally, the system must be operated in a way that minimizes damage to the ecosystem. To address these challenges, this paper implements a multistage model predictive control (MPC) framework on the Hjartdøla hydropower system after formulating the optimal control problem (OCP). Furthermore, the simplified method is applied to reduce the computational demand of multistage MPC. The simplified method reduces the number of scenario ensembles of uncertainty with statistical information. From the results of the simulations, it concludes that the multistage MPC framework with the simplified method is a good and computationally efficient control strategy in the eco-friendly operation of the Hjartdøla hydropower system.