The unwanted free rider: Covid-19

Abstract

Winter holidays in the European Alps early 2020 led to unexpected challenges for the Scandinavian countries (Denmark, Norway and Sweden), since many travellers brought home a free rider virus, Covid-19. In this study a modified gravity model is used to investigate how important destination country, size and geographical distance are for the extent to which the virus was carried to Scandinavia. The number of reported Covid-19 positive cases is highest from Austria (1150 individuals), Italy (68) and Spain (90). Count data model estimations confirm that the number of Covid-19 cases in Scandinavia mainly originates from Austria and Italy, followed by Iran. The number of positive cases brought from abroad decreases significantly with the geographical distance between the home country and the destination. There is also a clear surge of infections at the beginning of the observation period (11 March to 15 March 2020), before the introduction of travel restrictions.